ACADEMIC PAPERS & REPORTS
February 2009
"Exporting the Bomb: Why States Provide Sensitive Nuclear Assistance"
American Political Science Review, issue 1, volume 103
By Matthew Kroenig, Affiliate, Project on Managing the Atom
Why do states provide sensitive nuclear assistance to nonnuclear weapon states, contributing to the international spread of nuclear weapons? Using a new dataset on sensitive nuclear transfers, this paper analyzes the determinants of sensitive nuclear assistance. Dr. Kroenig first describes a simple logic of the differential effects of nuclear proliferation, which is used to generate hypotheses about the conditions under which states provide sensitive nuclear assistance. He then shows that the strategic characteristics of the potential nuclear suppliers are the most important determinants of sensitive nuclear assistance. Explanations that emphasize the importance of economic motivations do not find support in the data. This paper presents a new approach to the study of the spread of nuclear weapons, focusing on the supply side of nuclear proliferation.
December 2008
"Towards a Global Compact for Managing Climate Change"
Despite an enormous amount of work done to persuade the world of the dangers of climate change and the need for quick corrective action, there is little progress toward a global compact for managing climate change. In fact, there are some basic differences of perspectives on climate change policies between developed and developing countries which may bedevil future global agreements on climate change for quite some time. Among the reasons for these differences are the issues of historical responsibility for carbon emission by the developed countries, the need for lifestyle changes in both the developed and developing countries, suspicion in the developing countries about the motives of developed countries and too much focus of current discussions on the very long-term and global effects of climate change.
December 2008
"A Sectoral Approach as an Option for a Post-Kyoto Framework"
By Akihiro Sawa
This paper seeks to explore the potential of sectoral approaches as a post-Kyoto framework.
The shared understanding of sectoral approaches in the academic community can be outlined as follows:
- Sectoral approaches can potentially engage developing countries in mitigation actions, which would be an accomplishment unachieved by the Kyoto Protocol, and determine politically acceptable national targets anddomestic allowance allocations based on the analysis of reduction potentials from technological perspectives.
- Sectoral approaches are inherently at a disadvantage compared to the Kyoto-type top-down approach with flexibility mechanisms in terms of cost effectiveness and environmental effectiveness.
- Sectoral approach-based negotiations will be substantially complex, encompassing data collection issues and multiple sector-specific negotiation processes. Therefore, they are not cost-effective enough to constitute an international framework and can only be complementary or additional to the Protocol.
Given these drawbacks, this paper will propose the Policy-Based Sectoral Approach, under which sectoral approaches would be employed to establish national emission targets and governments would internationally pledge the implementation of policies and measures to achieve the targets.
December 2008
"Climate Accession Deals: New Strategies for Taming Growth of Greenhouse Gases in Developing Countries"
"Effective strategies for managing the dangers of global climate change are proving very difficult to design and implement. They require governments to undertake a portfolio of efforts that are politically challenging because they require large expenditures today for uncertain benefits that accrue far into the future. That portfolio includes tasks such as putting a price on carbon, fixing the tendency for firms to under-invest in the public good of new technologies and knowledge that will be needed for achieving cost-effective and deep cuts in emissions; and preparing for a changing climate through investments in adaptation and climate engineering. Many of those efforts require international coordination that has proven especially difficult to mobilize and sustain because international institutions are usually weak and thus unable to force collective action...."
December 2008
"Possible Development of a Technology Clean Development Mechanism in a Post-2012 Regime"
By Fei Teng, Wenying Chen and Jiankun He
In the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was set up by Article 12 to achieve two-fold objectives: to help Annex I countries to meet their emission targets in a cost-effective way and to support non-Annex I countries in achieving the goal of sustainable development. Although technology transfer is not a requirement for CDM, experience shows that CDM may contribute significantly to technology transfer. However, it is difficult to induce large-scale technology transfer through CDM in its present form. The project-specific nature of CDM leads to high transaction costs and makes it difficult to create economies of scale and pool risks across projects of the same type. Thus CDM is not effective in attracting more low-carbon investors. The CDM does not address the competitiveness concerns of the private sector in developed countries.This paper addresses these challenging issues by proposing an enhanced CDM regime with greater emphasis on technology transfer from developed countries to developing countries.
December 2008
"What Do We Expect from an International Climate Agreement? A Perspective from a Low-income Country"
"...[I]t is not clear that emissions trade between developed and developing countries is either feasible or desirable at this juncture. Technological change that lowers the prices of competitors to fossil fuels is the only way out. This can be promoted by regulation, tax, and tradeable permits in developed countries that provide inducements for R&D, and no less importantly, by the direct subsidization of R&D. The bulk of the finance for this will have to come from the developed countries. An international agreement involving developing countries should, at least in the coming round of negotiations, confine itself to promoting technical cooperation between regulators and other entities from all countries. It should include financial support from the developed countries for spreading energy conservation technologies and practices. Tropical agriculture will need a major thrust to develop new varieties that will withstand climate change. The necessary research and development cooperation should be part of the new agreement and needs major funding from developed countries. Research can also include emissions cuts from agricultural sources as long as this is financially well supported so that it does not reduce the funds available for promoting research into agricultural productivity."
December 2008
"Reconciling Human Development and Climate Protection: Perspectives from Developing Countries on Post-2012 International Climate Change Policy"
By Jing Cao, Former Research Fellow, Environment and Natural Resources Program, 2002-2003
"...[T]his paper provides a new multi-stage climate policy framework based on a revised Global Development Right (GDR) calculation, and proposes a feasible hybrid negotiation framework from the perspective of developing countries. According to the "common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities" principle in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), we recognize that due to the historical emissions contributions and different pace of industrialization and growth around the world, a successful international climate policy needs to balance equity and efficiency and eventually achieve an overall carbon mitigation target."
AP Photo
December 2008
"The Hidden Costs of Contracting: Private Law, Commercial Imperatives and the Privatized Military Industry"
By Rebecca Ulam Weiner, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2005-2007
"While PMCs sustained a strong rate of growth initially by contracting with governments in unstable states such as Angola or Sierra Leone, the market's expansion is due to the huge surge in demand for contracts from the United States and the United Kingdom. Over the past two decades, the U.S. government's policy on PMCs has evolved from apprehension to agnosticism to acknowledged dependency. As a result, PMCs are now far less likely to be operating behind their headquartering state's back than with its permission, at its behest, or alongside it."
AP Photo
Fall/Winter 2008
"Iran and the Shiite Crescent: Myths and Realities"
Brown Journal of World Affairs, issue 1, volume XV
By Kayhan Barzegar, Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
"In 2004, King Abdullah of Jordan warned about the emergence of an ideological Shiite crescent from Beirut to the Persian Gulf. Ever since then, the debate on Iran's intentions to create a Shiite crescent has been a significant topic of debate for the panels and conferences held on the region's issues. Three presumptions center on Iran's role and intentions. A Shiite crescent is seen by the Arab Sunni elites as an attempt by Iran firstly to engage the masses in the region; secondly, to build an ideological belt of sympathetic Shiite governments and political factions in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and the Persian Gulf region; and, thirdly, to expand its regional role and power. These explanations are inadequate and unrealistic; none of them are compatible with Iran's real aims and strategies."
December 2008
"Technology and International Climate Policy"
By Leon Clarke, Kate Calvin, James A. Edmonds, Page Kyle and Marshall Wise
This paper explores the interactions of international policy architecture and technology availability on the limitation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 500 ppm in the year 2095. We find that technology is even more important to reducing the costs of emissions mitigation when international policy structures deviate from immediate and full participation. We also find that the international diffusion of climate technology may be as or more important to domestic mitigation cost containment as domestic technology diffusion. We observe that near-term carbon prices reflect in a very direct way expectations about technology a half century and more into the future. We find that the policy architecture has a relatively modest effect on global emissions limitation pathways when compared with the impact of technology availability and observe that more rapid technology improvements reduce the relative influence of the policy architecture. Finally, we consider the implications combining CO2 capture and storage technology with bioenergy production, namely electricity production with negative carbon emissions.
