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"Appropriate Effective" Nuclear Security

July 25, 2008

Matthew Bunn on a new but little-used tool for combating nuclear terrorism and proliferation.

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Summer 2008

"Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz"

International Security, issue 1, volume 33

By Caitlin Talmadge

How might Iran retaliate in the aftermath of a limited Israeli or U.S. strike? The most economically devastating of Iran's potential responses would be closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to open-source order of battle data, as well as relevant analogies from military history and GIS maps, Iran does possess significant littoral warfare capabilities, including mines, antiship cruise missiles, and land-based air defense. If Iran were able to properly link these capabilities, it could halt or impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for a month or more. U.S. attempts to reopen the waterway likely would escalate rapidly into sustained, large-scale air and naval operations during which Iran could impose significant economic and military costs on the United States — even if Iranian operations were not successful in truly closing the strait. The aftermath of limited strikes on Iran would be complicated and costly, suggesting needed changes in U.S. force posture and energy policy.

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Summer 2008

Hedging Against Uncertainty: US Strategy in an Interdependent World

National Strategy Forum Review

By William Hogan, Raymond Plank Professor of Global Energy Policy

Energy is important, but energy independence is a dangerous myth. The U.S. National Petroleum Council recently observed: "There can be no U.S. energy security without global energy security." Oil flows in a world market and events anywhere affect the price of oil everywhere. There is no escaping these oil price shocks. Even if the United States were to substantially reduce its own oil consumption, there would be no immunity from the effects of high world oil prices that would determine domestic energy prices and ripple through the world economy. Geology and politics make the world deeply interdependent and policy should be crafted to promote and secure energy interdependence. Real energy security comes from robust energy systems with diversity and flexibility, not through isolation and energy autarky.

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July 19, 2008

"Bush's U-turn Toward Common Sense"

Los Angeles Times

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative

Graham Allison applauds the decision by the Bush administration to send U.S. Undersecretary of State William Burns to the European Union meeting with Iran on Saturday (July 19). This "flip-flop toward reality," Allison says, "represents a major step in overcoming fierce internal struggles within the U.S. and Iran that had left both stuck at stalemate."

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July 18, 2008

"China's Cyber Warriors"

Balitmore Sun

By Eric Rosenbach, Executive Director for Research, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Tamara Klajn

Could the United States be under attack from China without Americans even really knowing it?

Last week, Republican Reps. Frank R. Wolf of Virginia and Christopher H. Smith of New Jersey announced that Chinese hackers had attacked their office computers. Mr. Wolf and Mr. Smith, very public critics of China's human rights record, noted that it was likely that in 2006, the hackers sought to steal information about Chinese dissidents and refugees who had sought assistance from members of Congress.

Skeptics have suggested that the politicians' announcement was most likely intended as good old-fashioned China-bashing. After all, the details of the incident were "old news" to the U.S. national security community. And even the casual observer of American politics knows that China is often the target of unwarranted populist attacks on Capitol Hill.

July 16, 2008

"Running on Empty and Spreading the Blame"

The Boston Globe

By Henry Lee, Director, Environment and Natural Resources Program

Who is to blame for $4.00 gasoline?

July 11, 2008

"Joseph Nye on Smart Power in Iran-U.S. Relations"

By Joseph S. Nye, Sultan of Oman Professor of International Relations and Kayhan Barzegar, Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program

This interview elaborates on the applicability of Nye’s theory of “smart power” in the context of the Middle East and particularly Iran. The discussion further pushes the boundaries on how the current U.S policymakers should take into account soft and smart power towards Iran.

Nye: “… if the Americans, in efforts to try to stop the Iranian’s nuclear weapons program, were to bomb nuclear facilities in Iran, they might gain a few years of slowing down the nuclear weapons program but they would lose the whole generation of younger Iranians who would respond in a nationalistic way. So I think that would be a very large cost for a very limited benefit.”